Hallucination Detection

LLM Confidence and Calibration: A Survey of What the Research Actually Shows

A systematic survey of LLM confidence estimation and calibration methods—white-box logit approaches, consistency-based SelfCheckGPT, and semantic entropy—reveals that verbalized confidence scores from GPT-4 achieve only ~62.7% AUROC, barely above chance, with direct implications for deploying uncertainty-aware agents in finance and accounting.